User:Aarnott/Lego Bin 12

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RNG Calculations

I'm trying to figure out a basic set of values for monsters that keeps standard PCs (ones that don't get a bunch of bullshit bonuses) challenged by the monsters. This is my attempt.

Assumptions:

  • Ghostwheel's Balanced Wealth is in effect.
  • The expected ability score for an attack/defense statistic is 16 (+3)
  • A high ability score (with a racial bonus) will have an extra +2 modifier (an extra 10% on the RNG)
  • A medium ability score will have a modifier 2 lower (10% more likely to fail on the RNG)
  • A low ability score will have a modifier 4 lower (20% more likely to fail on the RNG)
  • Regular attack rolls are made with a full BAB
  • Touch attacks are made with a 3/4 BAB

Statistics

  • Your expected ability score, and high ability score will be chosen to be increased every 2 levels.
  • Your medium ability score will also be increased every 2 levels.
  • Your low ability score is a dump stat.
Level Expected Ability Score High ability score Medium ability score Low ability score Expected Variance Max Variance
1 16 (+3) 20 (+5) 12 (+1) 8 (-1) 4 6
2 17 (+3) 21 (+5) 13 (+1) 8 (-1) 4 6
3 18 (+4) 22 (+6) 14 (+2) 9 (-1) 5 7
4 19 (+4) 23 (+6) 15 (+2) 9 (-1) 5 7
5 19 (+4) 23 (+6) 15 (+2) 9 (-1) 5 7
6 21 (+5) 25 (+7) 17 (+3) 10 (+0) 5 7
7 21 (+5) 25 (+7) 17 (+3) 10 (+0) 5 7
8 22 (+6) 26 (+8) 18 (+4) 10 (+0) 6 8
9 23 (+6) 27 (+8) 19 (+4) 11 (+0) 6 8
10 24 (+7) 28 (+9) 20 (+5) 11 (+0) 7 9
11 24 (+7) 28 (+9) 20 (+5) 11 (+0) 7 9
12 26 (+8) 30 (+10) 22 (+6) 12 (+1) 7 9
13 26 (+8) 30 (+10) 22 (+6) 12 (+1) 7 9
14 27 (+8) 31 (+10) 23 (+6) 12 (+1) 7 9
15 28 (+9) 32 (+11) 24 (+7) 13 (+1) 8 10
16 29 (+9) 33 (+11) 25 (+7) 13 (+1) 8 10
17 29 (+9) 33 (+11) 25 (+7) 13 (+1) 8 10
18 31 (+10) 35 (+12) 27 (+8) 14 (+2) 8 10
19 31 (+10) 35 (+12) 27 (+8) 14 (+2) 8 10
20 32 (+11) 36 (+13) 28 (+9) 14 (+2) 9 11

Thoughts: A dump stat will have about a 20-30% higher chance of failure for a 1st level character compared to their primary stat. For a 20th level character, this penalty becomes a 45-55% higher chance of failure. If the base chance of failure for something really challenging is 50%, then a character's dump stat falls to the bottom of the RNG at level 20, making any ability check with that ability score not even worth rolling.


Regular attacks

Level Expected Attack Roll High ability score Medium ability score Low ability score
1 +4 +6 +2 +0